Taking calculated risks while betting



Betting, and sports betting in particular, can be a very good way of generating profit –  even a kind of income - if one opts to pursue this source of profit on a long-term basis. Of course, in order to be successful in betting, over the course of time, a bettor has to fulfill a wide range of conditions: Being knowledgeable about the sport he is going to bet on, having up-to-date information, having a proper money management system, having an adequate and positive psychology, and knowing basic mathematics and statistics. 
When some of these traits are combined, the ability to engage in calculated risks while betting is significantly enhanced. Calculated risks are essentially a mental calculation where the bettor has to take into account at least five parameters for a particular bet:
  • The betting  odds of a certain possibility to eventuate (or not eventuate). 
  • The actual possibility, according to the bettor’s judgment, of a bet to eventuate (this could be different from what the betting odds indicate).
  • A possible mismatch between what the betting odds indicate as possible and what the player believes will actually happen.
  • The existence of “value”, which is the result of the mismatch between what the betting-odds publisher thinks is possible for a bet, and what the player thinks is possible. For example, if a certain soccer team is offered 2:1 payout for victory, but is almost certain to win according to the bettor’s judgment, then this bet has great “value” to the bettor, in betting terminology.
  • The possibility of the bettor being wrong if he can see “value” in a bet, while a betting-odds publisher does not.
So, when all these mental observations and calculations take place, the bettor eventually decides whether a bet provides a true opportunity for profit generation given his own estimation on the perceived outcome. This is “finding value” in a bet, as it is called.
The more experienced or expert bettors are not satisfied in simply finding value in a bet. You may ask why but the answer is simple. These bettors are using a further mental calculation to “filter” possible betting opportunities: A bet which has value might not be as attractive compared to one which has even more value. In economic terms this is labeled “opportunity cost.” If a bettor has 100 dollars and invests them on a bet that provides a certain amount of perceived value, he is actually not maximizing his money if he could spend it on a bet that has even more value. Consequently, it is essential not only to find value in one particular betting event, but also to ensure that it has the best value amongst other betting events at that particular time. 


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